How to trade

Theorem Markets is a forecast exchange, not a sportsbook. There is no house. You trade event contracts with other people. A contract pays $1.00 if you are right and $0 if you are not.

  1. 01

    Read the implied probability

    If Yes is 64¢, the market thinks there is a 64% chance. No is 36¢. Those two numbers always add to $1 before you trade.

  2. 02

    Size the order in dollars

    Enter $25. At 64¢ you receive 25 / 0.64 ≈ 39 shares. If Yes hits, those shares are worth $39. If you sell at 80¢ before resolution, you lock $31.20.

  3. 03

    Hold or exit

    You can sell any time from Portfolio. Up or Down crypto windows settle automatically when the five minutes are up.

  4. 04

    Resolution

    Each market lists an official source and a UTC deadline. Disputes are handled by moderators within 48 hours. Positions close the moment the result is in.

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